Activity
#5538·Dennis HackethalOP, 1 day agoThere are still all the normal problems of human knowledge: maybe I missed a variation, maybe I accepted a bad one, maybe someone else would judge things differently. But those same problems exist when we come up with and judge criticisms.
In this context, there’s a serious issue at the heart of HTV in that not all preference formation involves thinking about variants. Oftentimes, preference formation simply doesn’t take this form. Successful rehabilitation of HTV would be universal in this sense: it would reduce all preference formation to HTV somehow.
I’ve given the example of Pop Tarts in the past. You can ask someone why they’re called that. And they might guess some answers (‘because they “pop” out of the toaster’, ‘because the name is fun’, ‘because the filling tastes tart’, etc.). But ultimately the preferable (and correct) answer will be gotten by just looking it up on the company website, say. Not by seeing which guess is “harder to vary”. I think that should count toward the “normal problems” you mention, but it’s one that needs to be addressed.
plaintext➜ hard-to-vary git:(master) python3 htv.pyHard-to-Vary Explanation Comparator-----------------------------------What question are you trying to answer?> Why are they called Pop Tarts?Enter explanations one at a time.Press Enter on an empty line when you're done.Explanation 1: Because they ‘pop’ out of the toaster.Explanation 2: Because the name is fun.Explanation 3: Because the filling tastes tart.Explanation 4:============================================================Explanation:Because they ‘pop’ out of the toaster.Enter variations of this explanation that would still work to explain the same thing.Press Enter on an empty line when you're done.Variation 1:============================================================Explanation:Because the name is fun.Enter variations of this explanation that would still work to explain the same thing.Press Enter on an empty line when you're done.Variation 1:============================================================Explanation:Because the filling tastes tart.Enter variations of this explanation that would still work to explain the same thing.Press Enter on an empty line when you're done.Variation 1:============================================================Question:Why are they called Pop Tarts?============================================================HARDNESS-TO-VARY RANKING============================================================Rank 1Explanation: Because they ‘pop’ out of the toaster.Working variations submitted: 0 variationsRank 1Explanation: Because the name is fun.Working variations submitted: 0 variationsRank 1Explanation: Because the filling tastes tart.Working variations submitted: 0 variationsFewer working variations = harder to vary.In this case, I couldn’t think of any good-faith variants of any of the three guesses. So they end up being equally preferable according to the program. But I happen to know that all three are false.
If I didn’t know, I’d reject guess 3 because Pop Tarts don’t actually taste tart. They taste sweet. So that’s a pending criticism. But guess 1 and 2 are plausible and I see no reason to prefer one over the other. One would need additional info, but not variant guesses.
I think the Pop-Tarts example mixes together two different things: acquiring new knowledge and forming a preference between explanations. Looking up why Pop-Tarts were actually given their name gives us new knowledge; it doesn't by itself show that the preference formation between explanations isn't HTV.
As I argued in #5553, the program operates on the user's current understanding of the problem and explanations. The user is comparing explanations and variations they currently judge to work. So everything they already know, including criticisms they're aware of, is part of that judgment.
In the Pop-Tarts example, say the three explanations are equally hard to vary given what I currently know. That's fine. I currently have no reason to prefer one over another.
Now suppose I look it up and find historical evidence saying the name was chosen for reason X. I've gained new knowledge, and that changes the problem situation. I'm no longer just asking why they're called Pop-Tarts; I'm asking why they're called Pop-Tarts given that I also know this historical evidence says X.
I could still maintain that the real reason was something else. Maybe the company was lying or the historical source was wrong. But then I have to explain that too. If I just say “the real reason is that they pop out of the toaster, and for some unrelated reason the company says X,” I've added another arbitrary factor to preserve my explanation. That seems like exactly the kind of thing that would expose it as easy to vary.
So I don't see acquiring new knowledge as something that sits outside the process and simply overrides the HTV result. New knowledge changes the problem situation and therefore changes what a working explanation now has to account for. We can then compare the explanations again in light of that new problem situation.
Being hard to vary also doesn't guarantee that an explanation is true. Newton's theory of gravity was a good explanation and remains good enough for many engineering problem situations, even though we later learned that it isn't the full story. As new problems and observations came up that Newton couldn't adequately account for, the problem situation changed and we needed a better explanation.
So I don't think every act of acquiring knowledge or finding a criticism itself needs to take the form of thinking about variants. Those things change the problem situation and affect which explanations and variations we consider to still work.
But that's different from saying the preference formation itself isn't HTV. Once our current knowledge and criticisms are taken into account, HTV can still operate on the explanations that still work and give us a preference—or sometimes tell us that, given what we currently know, they're equally good.