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  Dennis Hackethal addressed criticism #5586.

How does this show that HTV is unrelated to finding truth?

You say:

But guess 1 and 2 are plausible and I see no reason to prefer one over the other.

That's exactly how I see it. Before looking up the historical evidence, both seem like good explanations given what we know. So HTV giving us no preference between them seems like the right result at that point.

Once we acquire new knowledge that distinguishes them, the problem situation changes, as I explained in #5562.

I don't see why HTV failing to distinguish two good explanations before we have the knowledge that distinguishes them means it's unrelated to truth.

#5586​·​Jad Elmourad, 3 days ago

I don't see why HTV failing to distinguish two good explanations before we have the knowledge that distinguishes them means it's unrelated to truth.

Because it doesn’t help us form a preference in a factual matter like the Pop-Tart question. HTV is not involved.