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Related Popper reading: ‘Preference for Theories and the Search for Truth’
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For posterity regarding the most recent bounty on this idea, ChatGPT made me this awesome illustration a while back for my post about the bounty on X:
How Do Bounties Work?
Bounties let you invite criticism and reward high-quality contributions with real money.
Bounties are in beta. Expect things to break.
How do I participate?
Only users with a Beginner, Engager, and Defender badge can participate in bounties. Find a list of all badges and how to get them here.
To participate in a bounty, start by logging in or sign up.
Next, browse the list of bounties. Click a bounty’s dollar amount to view its page, review the bountied idea and the terms, and submit a criticism of that idea.
That’s it – you’re in.
How do I get paid?
The bounty owner reviews submissions for eligibility against his bounty terms.
To be eligible for a payout, all of the following must be true:
- Your submission is a direct criticism of the bountied idea.
- Your submission has no pending counter-criticisms by the deadline. (For temporary bounties, that’s when the review period ends; for standing bounties, it’s seven days after submission.)
- Your submission meets the bounty terms and the site-wide terms.
- You’ve connected a Stripe account in good standing before the deadline.
- You’ve not contributed funds to the bounty.
The bounty owner is never eligible to receive payouts from their own bounty.
Note that counter-criticisms are not constrained by the bounty-specific terms. Only direct criticisms of the bountied idea are.
How much will I get paid?
For temporary bounties, the amount is prorated among eligible participants based on contribution. For example, if there are ten eligible criticisms and you contributed two of them, you receive 20% of the amount when the bounty ends.
For standing bounties, amounts are assigned on a per-submission basis. For example, funders may indicate that they will pay a total of USD 100 for the first eligible submission, a total of USD 50 for the second eligible submission, and so on. Each eligible submission has its own payout date.
Fractions of cents are not paid out.
How do I run a bounty?
Click the megaphone button next to an idea (near the buttons to bookmark, archive, etc.).
Set a bounty amount and write clear terms describing the kinds of criticisms you’re willing to pay for. Then enter your credit-card details to authorize the amount plus a 5% bounty fee.
Your card is at most authorized, but not charged, when the bounty starts.
A temporary bounty typically runs for five to seven days, depending on your card’s authorization window. You may review submissions during the entire bounty period. Toward the end, a 24-hour grace period begins during which no new submissions can be made but you may continue your review. Reject any submissions that don’t meet your terms. Submissions you don’t reject are automatically accepted at the end of the review period and become eligible for payout. Your card is then charged the full authorization.
A standing bounty runs for as long as funds last. Each submission has its own seven-day review period. Again, reject any submissions that don’t meet your terms. Submissions you don’t reject are automatically accepted seven days after submission. Your card is then charged as indicated in your funding allocation.
If you reject all submissions, your card is never charged.
What’s the difference between a temporary and a standing bounty?
A temporary bounty has a fixed duration, typically between five and seven days. The bounty amount is prorated among eligible participants at the end. Standing bounties, on the other hand, don’t have a fixed duration; they run as long as funds last. Funds are paid out continuously and on a per-submission basis, as described above.
Temporary bounties are ideal when you have limited time and a smaller budget. Standing bounties are ideal for the long term with a larger budget. However, you can mix and match based on your own unique preferences and circumstances: for example, it’s possible to use a larger budget on a temporary bounty.
Can I fund an existing bounty?
Yes. Review the bounty terms. If you agree with them, click the ‘Add funding’ button on the bounty page and follow the next steps. At this point, your card is at most authorized but not charged.
Your card is charged for any submissions the bounty owner does not reject. If he rejects all submissions, your card is never charged.
Funders are never eligible to receive payouts from a bounty they funded.
Start a bounty today. Terms apply.
I’ve just posted the following update on my article linked in the parent idea. The bounty can be closed, at least for now.
Update 2026-09-06
TL;DR: Computational underspecification may have been solved; HTV is still not a description of rationality or of the cause of progress.
Dirk Meulenbelt, Benjamin Davies, and I ran a Veritula bounty worth USD 3,600 to rehabilitate HTV with regard to its computational underspecification. Jad Elmourad came up with a simple idea:
- Prompt the user for two explanations.
- Prompt the user for variants of each.
- Compare the count of variants and rank accordingly (lower count = better).
Unfortunately, the integrity of the discussion of this idea can’t be warranted because of problematic participation in the bounty. As a result, it’s currently not known whether the idea has pending criticisms, ie, whether its advocacy is rational.
That said, the program runs. I’ve tried it out. It offers a simple alternative to the sliders above. It does seem to partially rehabilitate HTV specifically with regard to its previous computational underspecification. In other words, where proponents of HTV used to be unable to explain exactly how to determine how HTV an explanation is, they can now follow the steps above and answer accordingly. They can now rank explanations this way. That helps.
What the program also shows, maybe ironically, is that nobody actually follows those steps in real life. For example, scientists don’t count variants of theories like that. Deutsch is still right about the following: “Whenever a wide range of variant theories can account equally well for the phenomenon they are trying to explain, there is no reason to prefer one of them over the others, so advocating a particular one in preference to the others is irrational.” (BoI chapter 1; also, the ‘grass cure’ from FoR comes to mind as an example.) So when a theory is easy to vary in this sense, that does indeed mean we can’t form a rational preference for one of the variants, at least not without additional information. But that doesn’t mean all preference formation involves theories being hard to vary.
What scientists actually do is criticize a theory for being ‘easy to vary’ (they’d just call it ‘arbitrary’), reject it, and look for a different one. They wouldn’t care to rank theories this way. And they’d use HTV as only one mode of criticism among many. It’s not the core of rationality and progress; again, not all problems of preference formation can be reduced to having too many variants.
Philosophers don’t rank theories this way either. I don’t recall a single instance in BoI where Deutsch counts variants and justifies a preference that way. Instead, he lists and addresses criticisms. He follows the Veritula method.
Also, one would only enter variants into the program that have already survived criticism. So then the question is how scientists tell whether an idea has survived criticism. And there the answer is still the Veritula method. So the program could maybe be incorporated into Veritula as an additional step. But again, it’s not needed if ETV is simply one kind of criticism among many, with no ranking.
To be clear, that isn’t a criticism of the program – the bounty specifically asked for the ranking. Here, I’m only exploring the wider implications if the program can be advocated rationally. And the answer is: the computational underspecification is then solved, but HTV is still not a description of rationality or of the cause of progress. That idea, as I just phrased it, can be adopted rationally at the time of writing, and we can move forward accordingly.
The integrity of the discussion branches off of this idea and its siblings is questionable due to problematic participation in a bounty. Labels around pending criticisms and battle-tested may be not be accurate.
Veritula discussion trees can’t accurately reflect problematic vs unproblematic ideas when unreasonable people are involved, see #5624. Submitting this as a fix. Jad agrees to terms, breaks them, then wants to argue the purpose and meaning of them. That’s arbitrary, ie the opposite of reason and Veritula. He will no doubt claim he was just trying to follow the Veritula method of addressing criticisms, but the effect is that he’s turning Veritula on its head in the process. There’s no point discussing with people like him.
Veritula discussion trees can’t accurately reflect problematic vs unproblematic ideas when unreasonable people are involved, see #5624. Submitting this as a fix. Jad agrees to terms, breaks them, then wants to argue the purpose and meaning of them. That’s arbitrary, ie the opposite of reason and Veritula. He will no doubt claim he was just trying to follow the Veritula method of addressing criticisms, but the effect is that he’s turning Veritula on its head in the process. There’s no point discussing with people like him.
Veritula discussion trees can’t accurately reflect problematic vs unproblematic ideas when unreasonable people are involved, see #5624. Submitting this as a fix. Jad agrees to terms, breaks them, then wants to argue the purpose and meaning of them. That’s arbitrary, ie the opposite of reason and Veritula. He will no doubt claim he was just trying to follow the Veritula method of addressing criticisms, but the effect is that he’s turning Veritula on its head in the process. There’s no point discussing with people like him.
Veritula discussion trees can’t accurately reflect problematic vs unproblematic ideas when unreasonable people are involved, see #5624. Submitting this as a fix. Jad agrees to terms, breaks them, then wants to argue the purpose and meaning of them. That’s arbitrary, ie the opposite of reason and Veritula. He will no doubt claim he was just trying to follow the Veritula method of addressing criticisms, but the effect is that he’s turning Veritula on its head in the process. There’s no point discussing with people like him.
Veritula discussion trees can’t accurately reflect problematic vs unproblematic ideas when unreasonable people are involved, see #5624. Submitting this as a fix. Jad agrees to terms, breaks them, then wants to argue the purpose and meaning of them. That’s arbitrary, ie the opposite of reason and Veritula. He will no doubt claim he was just trying to follow the Veritula method of addressing criticisms, but the effect is that he’s turning Veritula on its head in the process. There’s no point discussing with people like him.
Veritula discussion trees can’t accurately reflect problematic vs unproblematic ideas when unreasonable people are involved, see #5624. Submitting this as a fix. Jad agrees to terms, breaks them, then wants to argue the purpose and meaning of them. That’s arbitrary, ie the opposite of reason and Veritula. He will no doubt claim he was just trying to follow the Veritula method of addressing criticisms, but the effect is that he’s turning Veritula on its head in the process. There’s no point discussing with people like him.
Veritula discussion trees can’t accurately reflect problematic vs unproblematic ideas when unreasonable people are involved, see #5624. Submitting this as a fix. Jad agrees to terms, breaks them, then wants to argue the purpose and meaning of them. That’s arbitrary, ie the opposite of reason and Veritula. He will no doubt claim he was just trying to follow the Veritula method of addressing criticisms, but the effect is that he’s turning Veritula on its head in the process. There’s no point discussing with people like him.
Veritula discussion trees can’t accurately reflect problematic vs unproblematic ideas when unreasonable people are involved, see #5624. Submitting this as a fix. Jad agrees to terms, breaks them, then wants to argue the purpose and meaning of them. That’s arbitrary, ie the opposite of reason and Veritula. He will no doubt claim he was just trying to follow the Veritula method of addressing criticisms, but the effect is that he’s turning Veritula on its head in the process. There’s no point discussing with people like him.
I gave you an opportunity to be eligible for the remaining funds if you just stopped arguing. Now you’re doubling down and arguing more. You’ve forfeited the remaining funds.
Veritula discussion trees can’t accurately reflect problematic vs unproblematic ideas when unreasonable people are involved.
I’m banning you from Veritula in perpetuity. Don’t contact me again. I wish you well and hope you find another forum more to your liking.
When thousands of dollars are at stake, I think it’s fair to ask people to play by the rules. Still, I’m allowing flexibility by giving Jad a chance to collect the remaining funds.
I’m always happy to reward good work; I’ve paid out bounties in the past. And before I found out about Jad’s use of AI, I gave him tips increasing his odds of beating the bounty. I also submitted criticisms of some of my own ideas, further increasing his odds.
But people need to earn the reward. At some point, I noticed Jad had submitted his replies very quickly, with unusually verbose text, and in fairly rapid succession. AI is notoriously verbose, so that would have been the second-best time for him to mention he was using AI. He did not. But some people do genuinely type fast, so I gave him the benefit of the doubt.
When I later asked him directly whether he was using AI, he admitted to it but claimed it was merely to “help edit some of [his] writings”.
Pangram, an AI detector, paints a different picture: it says 100% (!) of the code and 22% of the prose in his first idea are AI-generated. I’ve also sampled some of his replies since, which Pangram says are also 100% AI-generated.
To play devil’s advocate once again, I wanted to make sure Pangram wasn’t giving me false positives. So I ran several tests against some of my own prose and code, and compared the results with known AI-generated prose and code. Pangram was almost always right – the few times it did make mistakes, they were almost always false negatives, so if anything, Pangram is too permissive. It does have lower confidence for shorter texts, so I also made sure to use only texts that are long enough. I showed Jad these results privately and he didn’t have a good answer, so I’m surprised he now wants to continue the discussion publicly.
In terms of content, handwriting the code matters because of Deutsch’s yardstick for having understood a computational task: if you can’t program it, you haven’t understood it. Jad says he still understands the code regardless, so it shouldn’t matter. But why not raise that before agreeing to a rule he took issue with? Why accept the risk of disqualification instead?
In terms of fairness, as Jad knows, payout for a bounty depends on addressing all known criticisms inside a review deadline. When a participant uses AI to help with that, but the funders don’t know about it, it creates an unfair advantage. That’s a violation of not just the letter but also the spirit of the rules. It’d be like secretly using a chess computer for help in a chess competition. The amount of text Jad has submitted also creates an uphill battle for the remaining funders to review his submissions before the deadline. Jad says he knows how bounties work, so he knows payouts are automatic at the deadline. Still, the remaining funders are willing to accommodate him.
Before I made the decision to withdraw my funds, I reached out to Jad privately, as I said, to make sure there wasn’t anything I had missed and that there were no hard feelings. We discussed the issue thoroughly and I couldn’t find anything. I also discussed the matter with the co-funders for a second and third opinion, again to make sure I hadn’t left any stones unturned. (To be clear, the responsibility for the decision to withdraw my funds is mine alone.)
I understand Jad was hoping for a bigger payout, so this must be a disappointing outcome. I empathize with that. I’d be bummed too. But he could have easily avoided this outcome. One can’t agree to a rule, immediately break it, get an unfair advantage, hope I won’t notice, and then complain when I do. But with any luck, he’ll get the remaining funds, provided that the arguing ends now.
Unfortunately, Jad has admitted to using AI for his submissions, in violation of the bounty terms. As a result, he’s not eligible for a payout. After discussing the issue with him and separately with cofunders @dirk-meulenbelt and @davies, I’ve decided to withdraw my funds.
However, the co-funders say they don’t mind the use of AI. For that reason, and as a token of appreciation for Jad’s idea, I’m making an exception and he’ll remain eligible for their funds, pending further development of this bounty.
Ok so let’s put ourselves in the shoes of someone who genuinely thinks different decimal numbers lead to different variants for both competing explanations, and that, as a result, there are infinitely many variants for each. Walk me through how that person would use your program?
In short, the question is: how can we use the program when we genuinely think both explanations have infinitely many variants?
This is out of scope for the bounty. The bounty merely says the program must “Return a ranking indicating which explanation is better, worse, or equal.” It doesn’t say the program has to specify which variation.
The program can't accept my judgment that these are genuine variations and then independently override that judgment because it “knows” they're actually irrelevant. Doing that would require the program itself to understand what is doing explanatory work. That's precisely the part I'm outsourcing to the user.
Fair enough.
As of 2026-09-02, I’ve removed that part from the blog post.
Revision 12 says:
Isn’t the assignment of positive scores, of positive reasons to prefer one theory over another, a kind of justificationism? Deutsch criticizes justificationism throughout The Beginning of Infinity, but isn’t an endorsement of a theory as ‘good’ a kind of justification?
I should know better since I recently wrote about how justifying a preference for a theory is fine (as opposed to justifying the claim that a theory is true).
It sounds like you’re agreeing, in which case this shouldn’t be marked as a criticism.
I don't see why HTV failing to distinguish two good explanations before we have the knowledge that distinguishes them means it's unrelated to truth.
Because it doesn’t help us form a preference in a factual matter like the Pop-Tart question. HTV is not involved.