What's wrong with probability?

(Steel-manning the common sense view)

We assign implicit probabilities as an expression of our current state of knowledge.

"In the summer desert it will probably be sunny this afternoon" tends to come from some who has no reason to think it won't be sunny, but maybe hasn't investigated it enough to be confident. It roughly translates to "everything I know points to it being sunny this afternoon, but I don't have a grasp of all the factors involved, so I am allowing myself the slim possibility (lol) that I will be surprised".

It is mistaken to apply probabilistic thinking to human affairs, because they involve knowledge, and the growth of knowledge cannot be predicted.

I will probably not want to learn a new language in the next year.

In summer in the desert, will it "probably" be sunny in the afternoon?

I'd like to clarify the status of probability-related thinking and everyday terms like "probably", "likely", "expectation", etc.

Events occur or don't, and conjectures are refuted or aren't. So is it irrational to say something will "probably happen?