What's wrong with probability?

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Tyler Mills’s avatar
Tyler MillsOP​·​#4759

Events occur or don't, and conjectures are refuted or aren't. So is it irrational to say something will "probably happen?

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Benjamin Davies’s avatar
Benjamin Davies​·​#4763

(Steel-manning the common sense view)

We assign implicit probabilities as an expression of our current state of knowledge.

"In the summer desert it will probably be sunny this afternoon" tends to come from some who has no reason to think it won't be sunny, but maybe hasn't investigated it enough to be confident. It roughly translates to "everything I know points to it being sunny this afternoon, but I don't have a grasp of all the factors involved, so I am allowing myself the slim possibility (lol) that I will be surprised".

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