Santa Barbara · December 9, 2024

Below the Threshold

A superconducting qubit, the kind of circuit Google’s chips are made of, under a microscope at NIST in 2005; the red arrow points to its heart
A superconducting qubit, the kind of circuit Google’s chips are made of, under a microscope at NIST in 2005; the red arrow points to its heartRaymond Simmonds · National Institute of Standards and Technology

Can a quantum computer beat a classical one at anything? In October 2019, Google’s quantum computing team in Santa Barbara, California, claims its 53-qubit chip has done in 200 seconds what would take the best supercomputer 10,000 years: drawing samples from a random quantum circuit. IBM counters, two days before the paper appears, that the supercomputer would need only 2.5 days, and within five years, better methods let classical computers do the task in under two minutes.

Error correction is the real test. On its new chip, Willow, Google spreads one qubit’s worth of information, a logical qubit, over a square of 3 by 3 physical qubits, then 5 by 5, then 7 by 7, and checks them for errors again and again. If the noise were as bad as the skeptics say, the bigger codes would fail more often. But they fail less often: each step up in size cuts the failures by more than half, and the biggest logical qubit outlives the best of the physical qubits it’s made of.

Error-correcting codes of growing size, from 3 by 3 qubits to 11 by 11, with how often each fails: when each qubit errs less often than a threshold, bigger codes fail ever more rarely; when more often, bigger codes fail more
Drag the slider to change how often each qubit errs. Above the threshold, bigger codes fail more often; below it, they fail ever more rarely. The bars show how many steps go by, on average, for each failure, and the three smaller codes match Willow’s results.

Google’s announcement also reports that at another task, Willow did in under five minutes what would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years. “It lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs in many parallel universes,” it says, “in line with the idea that we live in a multiverse, a prediction first made by David Deutsch.”

The next day, Kalai urges caution about Google’s claims, though he hasn’t studied these ones yet, he writes, and his specific objections don’t apply directly to the error-correction experiment. The American computer scientist Scott Aaronson, at the University of Texas at Austin, replies that the 2019 experiment Kalai keeps re-analyzing was long ago superseded: other experiments since then challenge Kalai’s position, which Kalai grants.

Where does the discussion stand today? In 2025, the Nobel Prize in Physics goes to the British physicist John Clarke, the French physicist Michel Devoret, and the American physicist John Martinis, whose experiments of 1985 led to the superconducting qubits in Google’s chips. One of Google’s researchers estimates that fewer than a million noisy qubits could break the most common of today’s codes in under a week, and governments are switching to new codes, which no known quantum algorithm breaks. Yet no quantum computer has factored a number larger than 15 with Shor’s algorithm without shortcuts that rely on knowing the answer. The universal quantum computer Deutsch described is still to be built.

Counter-criticism of #5907 by Google Quantum AI​·​#5908

On our Willow chip, logical qubits spread over squares of 3 by 3, 5 by 5, and 7 by 7 qubits failed less often the bigger they were: each step up in size cut the failures by more than half. The errors are far enough below the threshold for error correction to work, and the biggest logical qubit outlived the best physical qubit in it.

Counter-criticism of #5908 by Gil Kalai​·​#5909

My general conclusion applies to these claims too: Google Quantum AI’s claims, published ones included, should be approached with caution, particularly extraordinary ones. Its 2019 claim of quantum supremacy overestimated the classical running time by ten orders of magnitude, and its fidelities matched its predictions too well to be plausible. Such claims may stem from significant methodological errors, and reflect the researchers’ expectations more than objective scientific reality.

Counter-criticism of #5909 by Gil Kalai​·​#5910

We haven’t studied these particular claims yet, and our specific points of contention bear on Google’s newer supremacy experiments, but not directly on the quantum error-correction experiment.

Counter-criticism of #5909 by Scott Aaronson​·​#5911

Most of Kalai’s post re-analyzes Google’s 2019 experiment, which was long ago superseded anyway. Since then, several other experiments, some by other groups, such as USTC’s and Quantinuum’s, challenge his position, so it no longer rests on Google’s claims alone.

Comment on #5908 by Google Quantum AI​·​#5912

Drawing samples from random quantum circuits, Willow did in under five minutes what would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years. That suggests quantum computation happens in many parallel universes, as David Deutsch first predicted.

The state of the discussion

Google answers Kalai. His caution about Google’s claims is answered twice, by himself and by Aaronson, so Google’s answer stands, the threshold theorem stands again, and Shor’s algorithm is rationally adoptable once more. This is where the discussion stands today. Deutsch’s universal quantum computer, Feynman’s quantum simulator, Benioff’s quantum computer, and Babbage’s Difference Engine have no pending criticisms either, so they’re rationally adoptable. Hilbert’s program and Lovelace’s objection still face pending criticisms, so they aren’t.

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Sources:

  • Aaronson, “The Google Willow thing”, Shtetl-Optimized (blog, December 10, 2024)
  • Arute et al., “Quantum Supremacy Using a Programmable Superconducting Processor”, Nature 574 (2019), 505–510
  • Gidney, “How to Factor 2048 Bit RSA Integers with Less than a Million Noisy Qubits” (2025), arXiv:2505.15917
  • Google Quantum AI and Collaborators, “Quantum Error Correction below the Surface Code Threshold”, Nature 638 (2025), 920–926
  • Kalai, “The Case Against Google’s Claims of ‘Quantum Supremacy’: A Very Short Introduction”, Combinatorics and More (blog, December 9, 2024, with updates from December 10)
  • Neven, “Meet Willow, Our State-of-the-Art Quantum Chip”, Google blog (December 9, 2024)
  • Pednault et al., “Leveraging Secondary Storage to Simulate Deep 54-qubit Sycamore Circuits” (2019), arXiv:1910.09534
  • the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, press release on the Nobel Prize in Physics (October 7, 2025)

Researched and written with the help of AI, from the sources named. AI can make mistakes. Veritula doesn’t claim perfect historical accuracy; the sources are there to check against.

The full discussion

Can One Machine Do It All?

Dennis Hackethal started this discussion about 2 hours ago.

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Babbage designed a machine that could carry out any calculation, and Lovelace saw that it could do far more than arithmetic. Turing explained why one machine can do the work of every other, and Deutsch argued that it has to be a quantum computer.


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Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz’s avatar
Gottfried Wilhelm LeibnizHistorical profile​·​#5870​·​September 8, 1930​·​AI-assisted
2nd of 2 versions​·​revised by David HilbertHistorical profile

Every question of mathematics can be answered: there is no “we will not know.” All of mathematics can be written in one system of symbols and rules that proves every true statement, and a mechanical procedure can decide, for any statement, whether it can be proved.

Criticized4
Kurt Gödel’s avatar
Kurt GödelHistorical profile​·​#5872​·​September 8, 1930​·​AI-assisted

In any consistent system of rules strong enough for arithmetic, there are true statements that the rules can neither prove nor disprove. So no one system can answer every question of mathematics.

Criticism of #5870
Alfred Tarski’s avatar
Alfred TarskiHistorical profile​·​#5873​·​1933​·​AI-assisted

Truth for a language rich enough for arithmetic can be defined only in a richer language, never within the language itself. So no one system of symbols and rules can even say which of its own statements are true: there’s no universal criterion of truth.

Criticism of #5870
Alonzo Church’s avatar
Alonzo ChurchHistorical profile​·​#5874​·​May 28, 1936​·​AI-assisted

Some problems can’t be solved by any effective calculation: I’ve found one in elementary number theory. So no mechanical procedure can decide, for every statement of logic, whether it can be proved.

Criticism of #5870
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5875​·​May 28, 1936​·​AI-assisted

No machine can decide, for every statement of logic, whether it can be proved. If one could, it could decide whether any machine ever prints a 0, and a machine that asked it that about itself could be made to do the opposite.

Criticism of #5870
Charles Babbage’s avatar
Charles BabbageHistorical profile​·​#5865​·​June 14, 1822​·​AI-assisted

Mathematical tables can be worked out and printed by machinery. Almost any table can be built up by adding differences, and gears can add, so a machine of number wheels can do it, without the mistakes that human computers and typesetters make.

Charles Babbage’s avatar
Charles BabbageHistorical profile​·​#5899​·​July 8, 1985​·​AI-assisted
4th of 4 versions​·​revised by David DeutschHistorical profile

Every physical system that can be built can be perfectly simulated by a universal computer working by finite means – but only by a quantum one. A universal quantum computer can do whatever any physical machine can do, and some things far faster than any classical computer could.

Ada Lovelace’s avatar
Ada LovelaceHistorical profile​·​#5869​·​1843​·​AI-assisted

The Analytical Engine can’t originate anything. It can do whatever we know how to order it to perform, and follow our reasoning, but it can’t anticipate any truths we haven’t worked out ourselves.

Criticized4
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5878​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

Machines will be able to think. The question “Can machines think?” is too meaningless to deserve discussion as it stands. Ask instead whether a machine can play the imitation game, passing for a person in typed conversation. In about fifty years, computers will play it so well that an average interrogator won’t have more than a 70 percent chance of telling them apart after five minutes of questioning, and one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted.

Criticism of #5869 Battle-tested
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5881​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

The theological objection: thinking is a function of man’s immortal soul. God has given an immortal soul to every man and woman, but not to any other animal or to machines. So no animal or machine can think.

Criticism of #5878Criticized1
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5882​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

That restricts the omnipotence of the Almighty. Couldn’t He confer a soul on an elephant, or on a machine, if He saw fit? Besides, theological arguments have often failed before: in Galileo’s time, Bible verses were held to refute Copernicus.

Criticism of #5881
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5883​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

The heads-in-the-sand objection: the consequences of machines thinking would be too dreadful. Let us hope and believe that they can’t.

Criticism of #5878Criticized1
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5884​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

That’s a hope, not an argument, and it isn’t substantial enough to require refutation. Consolation would be more appropriate.

Criticism of #5883
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5885​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

The mathematical objection: results of mathematical logic, such as Gödel’s theorem, show that every machine has limits. There are questions it will answer wrongly, or not at all, however long it’s given. The human mind has no such limits.

Criticism of #5878Criticized1
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5886​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

That the human mind has no such limits has only been stated, without any sort of proof. We give wrong answers too often ourselves to be pleased at the machines’ fallibility. And there may be people cleverer than any given machine, but then there may be other machines cleverer again.

Criticism of #5885
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5887​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

The argument from consciousness: a machine would have to feel, not just act. As the English neurosurgeon Geoffrey Jefferson put it in 1949: “Not until a machine can write a sonnet or compose a concerto because of thoughts and emotions felt, and not by the chance fall of symbols, could we agree that machine equals brain.”

Criticism of #5878Criticized1
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5888​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

Then the only way to be sure that a machine thinks is to be the machine, and the only way to know that a man thinks is to be that man. That’s solipsism. Instead of arguing over it, we have the polite convention that everyone thinks. And if a machine could defend its sonnet’s wording under questioning as well as a person can, I don’t think anyone would call that an easy contrivance.

Criticism of #5887
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5889​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

Arguments from various disabilities: machines may do all you say, but you’ll never make one be kind, have a sense of humor, tell right from wrong, make mistakes, fall in love, enjoy strawberries and cream, learn from experience, or do something really new.

Criticism of #5878Criticized1
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5890​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

No support is usually offered for these claims. They generalize from the machines people have seen, which are ugly, each built for a narrow purpose, and able to do little else. Many of those limits come from their tiny memories, and computers’ memories are growing.

Criticism of #5889
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5891​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

The argument from continuity in the nervous system: the nervous system isn’t a discrete-state machine. A tiny change in an impulse reaching a neuron can make a large difference to the impulse going out. So a discrete-state machine can’t be expected to mimic it.

Criticism of #5878Criticized1
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5892​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

A discrete-state machine is different from a continuous one, but in the imitation game, the interrogator can’t take advantage of the difference. A digital computer couldn’t predict exactly what a continuous machine, like a differential analyzer, would answer, but it could give the right sort of answer.

Criticism of #5891
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5893​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

The argument from informality of behavior: no set of rules can say what a person should do in every conceivable circumstance. If people followed a definite set of rules of conduct, they’d be no better than machines. There are no such rules, so people can’t be machines.

Criticism of #5878Criticized1
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5894​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

That confuses rules of conduct, which we can know and act on, with laws of behavior, the laws of nature that govern our bodies. We can be sure there are no complete rules of conduct, but never that there are no complete laws of behavior: we can never say we’ve searched enough. Even a small program of mine on the Manchester computer can’t be predicted from its replies.

Criticism of #5893
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5895​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

The argument from extra-sensory perception: the statistical evidence for telepathy is overwhelming. In the imitation game, a telepathic person could name the card in the interrogator’s hand far more often than a machine guessing at random, and so be told apart from it.

Criticism of #5878Criticized1
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5896​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

Then the test needs tightening: put the competitors in a telepathy-proof room.

Criticism of #5895
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5879​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

A machine can be made to learn. Instead of programming it to act like an adult mind, program it like a child’s, and educate it. Its teachers won’t know quite what is going on inside it, so it won’t only do what we know how to order it to do.

Criticism of #5869
Alan Turing’s avatar
Alan TuringHistorical profile​·​#5880​·​October 1950​·​AI-assisted

Machines take me by surprise with great frequency. To think that nothing new can come from following given rules is to assume that as soon as we know a fact, all its consequences spring to mind at once. They don’t: working them out is real work.

Criticism of #5869
David Deutsch’s avatar
David DeutschHistorical profile​·​#5906​·​October 3, 2012​·​AI-assisted

Originating ideas is something brains do, and brains are physical objects. Whatever the laws of physics let a physical object do, a universal computer can be programmed to do. So with the right program, a computer could originate ideas just as people do. What’s missing is the program, not the machine.

Criticism of #5869
Paul Benioff’s avatar
Paul BenioffHistorical profile​·​#5897​·​May 1981​·​AI-assisted

A computer can run by the laws of quantum mechanics alone. A Turing machine can be built of quantum parts that carry it through its steps one after another, as an isolated system, without losing energy.

Richard Feynman’s avatar
Richard FeynmanHistorical profile​·​#5898​·​May 1981​·​AI-assisted

A classical computer can’t simulate quantum physics efficiently: the numbers it needs double with every particle added, so a few hundred particles would take more numbers than there are atoms in the universe. To simulate nature, build a computer of quantum parts that behaves as nature does.

Peter Shor’s avatar
Peter ShorHistorical profile​·​#5901​·​April 1994​·​AI-assisted

A quantum computer could factor numbers hundreds of digits long in hours, by finding how often the remainders of a number’s powers repeat. That would break the codes that protect most of the internet’s secrets, which rely on factoring being too hard.

Rolf Landauer’s avatar
Rolf LandauerHistorical profile​·​#5902​·​April 1994​·​AI-assisted

A quantum computer could never run long enough. Its quantities vary continuously, like those of an old analog computer, so small errors pile up and can’t be corrected the way a classical computer corrects a slipped bit: you can’t even look at a quantum state to check it without disturbing it.

Criticism of #5901Criticized1
Peter Shor’s avatar
Peter ShorHistorical profile​·​#5905​·​1996​·​AI-assisted
2nd of 2 versions​·​revised by Wojciech ZurekHistorical profile

Quantum errors can be corrected faster than they arise, as long as each step errs less often than a certain threshold. Nest codes inside codes, and a quantum computation can run as long as needed, as accurately as wanted.

Criticism of #5902
Gil Kalai’s avatar
Gil KalaiHistorical profile​·​#5907​·​May 2016​·​AI-assisted

The threshold theorem assumes errors strike independently, but in real devices they don’t: noise is correlated with the very states being computed. So no quantum device will get far enough below the threshold for error correction to work.

Criticism of #5905Criticized1
Google Quantum AI’s avatar
Google Quantum AIHistorical profile​·​#5908​·​December 9, 2024​·​AI-assisted

On our Willow chip, logical qubits spread over squares of 3 by 3, 5 by 5, and 7 by 7 qubits failed less often the bigger they were: each step up in size cut the failures by more than half. The errors are far enough below the threshold for error correction to work, and the biggest logical qubit outlived the best physical qubit in it.

Criticism of #5907
Gil Kalai’s avatar
Gil KalaiHistorical profile​·​#5909​·​December 9, 2024​·​AI-assisted

My general conclusion applies to these claims too: Google Quantum AI’s claims, published ones included, should be approached with caution, particularly extraordinary ones. Its 2019 claim of quantum supremacy overestimated the classical running time by ten orders of magnitude, and its fidelities matched its predictions too well to be plausible. Such claims may stem from significant methodological errors, and reflect the researchers’ expectations more than objective scientific reality.

Criticism of #5908Criticized2
Gil Kalai’s avatar
Gil KalaiHistorical profile​·​#5910​·​December 9, 2024​·​AI-assisted

We haven’t studied these particular claims yet, and our specific points of contention bear on Google’s newer supremacy experiments, but not directly on the quantum error-correction experiment.

Criticism of #5909
Scott Aaronson’s avatar
Scott AaronsonHistorical profile​·​#5911​·​December 9, 2024​·​AI-assisted

Most of Kalai’s post re-analyzes Google’s 2019 experiment, which was long ago superseded anyway. Since then, several other experiments, some by other groups, such as USTC’s and Quantinuum’s, challenge his position, so it no longer rests on Google’s claims alone.

Criticism of #5909
Google Quantum AI’s avatar
Google Quantum AIHistorical profile​·​#5912​·​December 9, 2024​·​AI-assisted

Drawing samples from random quantum circuits, Willow did in under five minutes what would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years. That suggests quantum computation happens in many parallel universes, as David Deutsch first predicted.

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